Partizani Tirana II 1–1 Korabi Peshkopi

Partizani Tirana II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Korabi Peshkopi

11/28/2020

1st Division · Round 4Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Partizani Tirana II30%

×Draw26%

Korabi Peshkopi43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Partizani Tirana IIExpected goals in this matchKorabi Peshkopi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.43

Partizani Tirana II

1.15

Korabi Peshkopi

1.43

Korabi Peshkopi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 103 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

1.92

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Partizani Tirana II

1.00

Korabi Peshkopi

0.93

allows per match

Partizani Tirana II

1.92

Korabi Peshkopi

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizani Tirana II ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Partizani Tirana II or draw

57%

Partizani Tirana II or Korabi Peshkopi

74%

Draw or Korabi Peshkopi

70%

Winning margin

Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+

12%

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals

68%

Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals

32%

Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals

11%

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals

76%

Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals

42%

Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)

41%

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizani Tirana II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.00 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Partizani Tirana II scores more

30%

level

26%

Korabi Peshkopi scores more

43%

Korabi Peshkopi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff