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Korabi Peshkopi vs Partizani Tirana II — 1st Division 2019

Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Partizani Tirana II
Partizani Tirana II
3/4/20211st Division1st Division · Round 13Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi44%
×Draw27%
Partizani Tirana II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korabi Peshkopi
1.38
Partizani Tirana II
1.07

Korabi Peshkopi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 13 away

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi
1.39
Partizani Tirana II
1.38

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi
0.76
Partizani Tirana II
1.38

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par
Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Partizani Tirana II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw
71%
Korabi Peshkopi or Partizani Tirana II
73%
Draw or Partizani Tirana II
56%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
21%
Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
75%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
40%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
16%
Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals
66%
Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals
29%
Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
60%
Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Partizani Tirana II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.38 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more
44%
level
27%
Partizani Tirana II scores more
29%

Korabi Peshkopi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korabi Peshkopi vs Partizani Tirana II

Korabi Peshkopi and Partizani Tirana II drew 1-1 in 1st Division on March 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Korabi in Peshkopi.