Partizani Tirana II 1–3 Burreli: Result & Stats

Partizani Tirana II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Burreli

2/28/2021

1st Division · Round 12Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Partizani Tirana II33%

×Draw26%

Burreli41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Partizani Tirana IIExpected goals in this matchBurreli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.39

Partizani Tirana II

1.22

Burreli

1.39

Burreli creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 100 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

1.92

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Partizani Tirana II

1.00

Burreli

0.86

allows per match

Partizani Tirana II

1.92

Burreli

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par

Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizani Tirana II ↓

Burreli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Partizani Tirana II or draw

59%

Partizani Tirana II or Burreli

74%

Draw or Burreli

67%

Winning margin

Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+

14%

Burreli wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals

70%

Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals

34%

Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals

12%

Burreli 1+ goals

75%

Burreli 2+ goals

40%

Burreli 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)

45%

Burreli (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizani Tirana II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.00 + Burreli defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Burreli attack 0.86 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Partizani Tirana II scores more

33%

level

26%

Burreli scores more

41%

Burreli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff