Burreli 2–1 Partizani Tirana II: Result & Stats

Burreli

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Partizani Tirana II

11/21/2020

1st Division · Round 3Stadiumi Liri Ballabani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Burreli42%

×Draw29%

Partizani Tirana II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurreliExpected goals in this matchPartizani Tirana II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.99

Burreli

1.25

Partizani Tirana II

0.99

Burreli creates 26% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 13 away

1.13

creates per match

1.38

0.61

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Burreli

1.13

Partizani Tirana II

1.38

allows per match

Burreli

0.61

Partizani Tirana II

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par

Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

Partizani Tirana II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Burreli or draw

71%

Burreli or Partizani Tirana II

71%

Draw or Partizani Tirana II

58%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+

19%

Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals

71%

Burreli 2+ goals

36%

Burreli 3+ goals

13%

Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals

63%

Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals

26%

Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)

59%

Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

Partizani Tirana II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.38 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burreli scores more

42%

level

29%

Partizani Tirana II scores more

29%

Burreli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff