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Partizani Tirana II vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Partizani Tirana II
Partizani Tirana II
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
11/7/20201st Division1st Division · Round 2Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Partizani Tirana II33%
×Draw26%
Besëlidhja Lezhë41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizani Tirana II
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.39

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 51 away

creates per match

Partizani Tirana II
1.00
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Partizani Tirana II
1.92
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizani Tirana II ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Partizani Tirana II or draw
59%
Partizani Tirana II or Besëlidhja Lezhë
74%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
67%

Winning margin

Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+
14%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals
71%
Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals
35%
Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals
13%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
75%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
40%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)
45%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizani Tirana II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.00 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Partizani Tirana II scores more
33%
level
26%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
41%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Partizani Tirana II vs Besëlidhja Lezhë

Besëlidhja Lezhë beat Partizani Tirana II 6-2 in 1st Division on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Kompleksi Internacional in Pezë Helmës.