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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Partizani Tirana II — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Partizani Tirana II
Partizani Tirana II
4/3/20211st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 1Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë41%
×Draw25%
Partizani Tirana II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.49
Partizani Tirana II
1.33

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 13 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Partizani Tirana II
1.38

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Partizani Tirana II
1.38

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Partizani Tirana II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
66%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Partizani Tirana II
75%
Draw or Partizani Tirana II
59%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
20%
Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
77%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
44%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
19%
Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals
74%
Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals
38%
Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
55%
Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Partizani Tirana II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.49

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.38 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
41%
level
25%
Partizani Tirana II scores more
34%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Partizani Tirana II

Besëlidhja Lezhë beat Partizani Tirana II 3-1 in 1st Division on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.