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Partizan vs Juventus Malchika — Third League - Northwest 2018

Partizan
Partizan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
10/25/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 10Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Partizan67%
×Draw18%
Juventus Malchika15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizan
2.44
Juventus Malchika
1.06

Partizan creates 130% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 65 away

creates per match

Partizan
1.72
Juventus Malchika
0.80

allows per match

Partizan
1.31
Juventus Malchika
3.17

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par
Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Juventus Malchika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Partizan or draw
85%
Partizan or Juventus Malchika
82%
Draw or Juventus Malchika
33%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+
45%
Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals
91%
Partizan 2+ goals
70%
Partizan 3+ goals
43%
Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
65%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
29%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)
82%
Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.44

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Partizan scores more
67%
level
18%
Juventus Malchika scores more
15%

Partizan at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Partizan 0–1 Juventus Malchika

Juventus Malchika beat Partizan 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Cherven bryag.