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Juventus Malchika vs Partizan — Third League - Northwest 2018

Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Partizan
Partizan
9/28/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 5Stadion Georgi Karchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Juventus Malchika43%
×Draw23%
Partizan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Malchika
1.70
Partizan
1.48

Juventus Malchika creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 106 away

creates per match

Juventus Malchika
1.48
Partizan
0.94

allows per match

Juventus Malchika
2.02
Partizan
1.92

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par
Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Partizan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw
66%
Juventus Malchika or Partizan
77%
Draw or Partizan
57%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
22%
Partizan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
82%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
51%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
24%
Partizan 1+ goals
77%
Partizan 2+ goals
43%
Partizan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
56%
Partizan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Partizan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.92 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Partizan defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.70

Partizan attack 0.94 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more
43%
level
23%
Partizan scores more
34%

Juventus Malchika at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Juventus Malchika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Juventus Malchika 3–4 Partizan

Partizan beat Juventus Malchika 4-3 in Third League - Northwest on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Karchev in Malchika.