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Partizan vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Partizan
Partizan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Drenovets
Drenovets
9/3/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Partizan62%
×Draw20%
Drenovets18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizan
2.14
Drenovets
1.04

Partizan creates 106% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 68 away

creates per match

Partizan
1.72
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Partizan
1.31
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Partizan or draw
82%
Partizan or Drenovets
80%
Draw or Drenovets
38%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+
39%
Drenovets wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals
88%
Partizan 2+ goals
63%
Partizan 3+ goals
36%
Drenovets 1+ goals
65%
Drenovets 2+ goals
28%
Drenovets 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)
78%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.14

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Partizan scores more
62%
level
20%
Drenovets scores more
18%

Partizan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Partizan vs Drenovets

Partizan beat Drenovets 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Cherven bryag.