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Drenovets vs Partizan — Third League - Northwest 2018

Drenovets
Drenovets
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Partizan
Partizan
10/27/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 12Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Drenovets53%
×Draw22%
Partizan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenovets
1.94
Partizan
1.27

Drenovets creates 53% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 106 away

creates per match

Drenovets
1.96
Partizan
0.94

allows per match

Drenovets
1.61
Partizan
1.92

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par
Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Partizan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw
75%
Drenovets or Partizan
78%
Draw or Partizan
47%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+
30%
Partizan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals
86%
Drenovets 2+ goals
58%
Drenovets 3+ goals
30%
Partizan 1+ goals
72%
Partizan 2+ goals
36%
Partizan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)
68%
Partizan (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Partizan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.92 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Partizan defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.94

Partizan attack 0.94 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Drenovets scores more
53%
level
22%
Partizan scores more
25%

Drenovets at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Drenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Drenovets 5–2 Partizan

Drenovets beat Partizan 5-2 in Third League - Northwest on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Drenovets in Drenovets.