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Partizan vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Partizan
Partizan
FT
3 – 1
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
9/17/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Partizan50%
×Draw23%
Botev Vratsa II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizan
1.77
Botev Vratsa II
1.23

Partizan creates 44% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 61 away

creates per match

Partizan
1.72
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Partizan
1.31
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Partizan or draw
73%
Partizan or Botev Vratsa II
77%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
50%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+
27%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals
83%
Partizan 2+ goals
53%
Partizan 3+ goals
26%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
71%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
35%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)
65%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Partizan scores more
50%
level
23%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
27%

Partizan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Partizan vs Botev Vratsa II

Partizan beat Botev Vratsa II 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Cherven bryag.