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Botev Vratsa II vs Partizan — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Partizan
Partizan
3/2/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 17Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Botev Vratsa II49%
×Draw23%
Partizan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
1.77
Partizan
1.26

Botev Vratsa II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 106 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Partizan
0.94

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Partizan
1.92

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Partizan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
73%
Botev Vratsa II or Partizan
77%
Draw or Partizan
51%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
27%
Partizan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
83%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
53%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
26%
Partizan 1+ goals
72%
Partizan 2+ goals
36%
Partizan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
64%
Partizan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Partizan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.92 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Partizan defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Partizan attack 0.94 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
49%
level
23%
Partizan scores more
27%

Botev Vratsa II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa II vs Partizan

Botev Vratsa II and Partizan drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Vratsa.