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Partizán Bardejov W vs Nitra W — I Liga - Women 2020

Partizán Bardejov W
Partizán Bardejov W
CANC
13:00
Nitra W
Nitra W
10/15/2020I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 6Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Partizán Bardejov W54%
×Draw19%
Nitra W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizán Bardejov W
2.63
Nitra W
1.87

Partizán Bardejov W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov W
2.13
Nitra W
1.80

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov W
1.94
Nitra W
3.13

finishing

Partizán Bardejov W+0.00on par
Nitra W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov W ↓

Nitra W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov W or draw
73%
Partizán Bardejov W or Nitra W
81%
Draw or Nitra W
46%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov W wins by 2+
34%
Nitra W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov W 1+ goals
93%
Partizán Bardejov W 2+ goals
73%
Partizán Bardejov W 3+ goals
48%
Nitra W 1+ goals
85%
Nitra W 2+ goals
56%
Nitra W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov W (draw refunded)
66%
Nitra W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov W at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Nitra W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov W attack 2.13 + Nitra W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.63

Nitra W attack 1.80 + Partizán Bardejov W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Partizán Bardejov W scores more
54%
level
19%
Nitra W scores more
27%

Partizán Bardejov W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Partizán Bardejov W face Nitra W (I Liga - Women)

I Liga - Women returns with Partizán Bardejov W hosting Nitra W. Match starts October 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Partizán Bardejov W host Nitra W at Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.