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Nitra W vs Partizán Bardejov W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nitra W
Nitra W
CANC
13:00
Partizán Bardejov W
Partizán Bardejov W
5/15/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 15Štadión pod Zoborom Vedľajšie Ihrisko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nitra W21%
×Draw17%
Partizán Bardejov W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra W
1.71
Partizán Bardejov W
2.94

Partizán Bardejov W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nitra W
1.56
Partizán Bardejov W
2.00

allows per match

Nitra W
3.88
Partizán Bardejov W
1.86

finishing

Nitra W+0.00on par
Partizán Bardejov W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra W ↓

Partizán Bardejov W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Nitra W or draw
38%
Nitra W or Partizán Bardejov W
83%
Draw or Partizán Bardejov W
79%

Winning margin

Nitra W wins by 2+
10%
Partizán Bardejov W wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Nitra W 1+ goals
82%
Nitra W 2+ goals
51%
Nitra W 3+ goals
24%
Partizán Bardejov W 1+ goals
95%
Partizán Bardejov W 2+ goals
79%
Partizán Bardejov W 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Nitra W (draw refunded)
25%
Partizán Bardejov W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.88 · 16 matches

Partizán Bardejov W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra W attack 1.56 + Partizán Bardejov W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Partizán Bardejov W attack 2.00 + Nitra W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nitra W scores more
21%
level
17%
Partizán Bardejov W scores more
62%

Partizán Bardejov W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nitra W face Partizán Bardejov W (I Liga - Women)

I Liga - Women returns with Nitra W hosting Partizán Bardejov W. Match starts May 15, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Nitra W host Partizán Bardejov W at Štadión pod Zoborom Vedľajšie Ihrisko.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.