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Partizán Bardejov vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
5/6/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 25Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Partizán Bardejov60%
×Draw21%
Slovan Giraltovce19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizán Bardejov
1.98
Slovan Giraltovce
1.01

Partizán Bardejov creates 96% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.61
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.52
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov or draw
81%
Partizán Bardejov or Slovan Giraltovce
79%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
40%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
36%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
86%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
59%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
31%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
64%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
27%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
76%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.61 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.98

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Partizán Bardejov scores more
60%
level
21%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
19%

Partizán Bardejov at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Partizán Bardejov 2–0 Slovan Giraltovce

Partizán Bardejov beat Slovan Giraltovce 2-0 in 3. liga - East on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov in Bardejov.