Partizán Bardejov 1–2 Oravské Veselé

Partizán Bardejov

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Oravské Veselé

4/20/2024

3. liga - East · East - 23Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Partizán Bardejov51%

×Draw23%

Oravské Veselé26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Partizán BardejovExpected goals in this matchOravské Veselé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.25

Partizán Bardejov

1.85

Oravské Veselé

1.25

Partizán Bardejov creates 48% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 29 away

1.61

creates per match

0.97

1.52

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov

1.61

Oravské Veselé

0.97

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov

1.52

Oravské Veselé

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov ↓

Oravské Veselé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov or draw

74%

Partizán Bardejov or Oravské Veselé

77%

Draw or Oravské Veselé

49%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+

29%

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals

84%

Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals

55%

Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals

28%

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals

71%

Oravské Veselé 2+ goals

36%

Oravské Veselé 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)

66%

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Oravské Veselé away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.61 + Oravské Veselé defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.85

Oravské Veselé attack 0.97 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Partizán Bardejov scores more

51%

level

23%

Oravské Veselé scores more

26%

Partizán Bardejov at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff