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Oravské Veselé vs Partizán Bardejov — 3. liga - East 2020

Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
11/20/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 8MŠK Námestovo UT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Oravské Veselé66%
×Draw19%
Partizán Bardejov15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oravské Veselé
2.29
Partizán Bardejov
0.98

Oravské Veselé creates 134% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

creates per match

Oravské Veselé
2.00
Partizán Bardejov
1.00

allows per match

Oravské Veselé
0.97
Partizán Bardejov
2.57

finishing

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par
Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oravské Veselé ↓

Partizán Bardejov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oravské Veselé or draw
85%
Oravské Veselé or Partizán Bardejov
81%
Draw or Partizán Bardejov
34%

Winning margin

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
43%
Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
90%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
66%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
40%
Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
62%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
26%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
82%
Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oravské Veselé at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Partizán Bardejov away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oravské Veselé attack 2.00 + Partizán Bardejov defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.00 + Oravské Veselé defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Oravské Veselé scores more
66%
level
19%
Partizán Bardejov scores more
15%

Oravské Veselé at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Oravské Veselé 1–2 Partizán Bardejov

Partizán Bardejov beat Oravské Veselé 2-1 in 3. liga - East on November 20, 2023.

The match was played at MŠK Námestovo UT in Námestovo.