Partizán Bardejov 1–3 Fiľakovo: Result & Stats

Partizán Bardejov

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Fiľakovo

8/19/2023

3. liga - East · East - 3Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Partizán Bardejov50%

×Draw23%

Fiľakovo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Partizán BardejovExpected goals in this matchFiľakovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.23

Partizán Bardejov

1.77

Fiľakovo

1.23

Partizán Bardejov creates 44% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

1.61

creates per match

0.95

1.52

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov

1.61

Fiľakovo

0.95

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov

1.52

Fiľakovo

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Fiľakovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov ↓

Fiľakovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov or draw

73%

Partizán Bardejov or Fiľakovo

77%

Draw or Fiľakovo

50%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+

27%

Fiľakovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals

83%

Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals

53%

Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals

26%

Fiľakovo 1+ goals

71%

Fiľakovo 2+ goals

35%

Fiľakovo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)

65%

Fiľakovo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Fiľakovo away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.61 + Fiľakovo defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Fiľakovo attack 0.95 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Partizán Bardejov scores more

50%

level

23%

Fiľakovo scores more

27%

Partizán Bardejov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff