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Fiľakovo vs Partizán Bardejov — 3. liga - East 2020

Fiľakovo
Fiľakovo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
5/11/20253. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 26Štadión FTC Fiľakovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Fiľakovo58%
×Draw21%
Partizán Bardejov21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiľakovo
2.10
Partizán Bardejov
1.17

Fiľakovo creates 79% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Fiľakovo
1.64
Partizán Bardejov
1.00

allows per match

Fiľakovo
1.34
Partizán Bardejov
2.57

finishing

Fiľakovo+0.00on par
Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiľakovo ↓

Partizán Bardejov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fiľakovo or draw
79%
Fiľakovo or Partizán Bardejov
79%
Draw or Partizán Bardejov
42%

Winning margin

Fiľakovo wins by 2+
36%
Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fiľakovo 1+ goals
88%
Fiľakovo 2+ goals
62%
Fiľakovo 3+ goals
35%
Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
69%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
33%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fiľakovo (draw refunded)
74%
Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiľakovo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Partizán Bardejov away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiľakovo attack 1.64 + Partizán Bardejov defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.10

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.00 + Fiľakovo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fiľakovo scores more
58%
level
21%
Partizán Bardejov scores more
21%

Fiľakovo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fiľakovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiľakovo vs Partizán Bardejov

Fiľakovo and Partizán Bardejov drew 0-0 in 3. liga - East on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión FTC Fiľakovo in Fiľakovo.