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Partizán Bardejov vs Dubnica — 2. liga 2019

Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
10/3/20202. liga2. liga · Round 11Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Partizán Bardejov43%
×Draw26%
Dubnica31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizán Bardejov
1.48
Dubnica
1.21

Partizán Bardejov creates 22% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.08
Dubnica
1.20

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.21
Dubnica
1.89

finishing

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov or draw
69%
Partizán Bardejov or Dubnica
74%
Draw or Dubnica
57%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
21%
Dubnica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
77%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
43%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
19%
Dubnica 1+ goals
70%
Dubnica 2+ goals
34%
Dubnica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
58%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.08 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Partizán Bardejov scores more
43%
level
26%
Dubnica scores more
31%

Partizán Bardejov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Partizán Bardejov 0–0 Dubnica

Partizán Bardejov and Dubnica drew 0-0 in 2. liga on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov in Bardejov.