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Dubnica vs Partizán Bardejov — 2. liga 2019

Dubnica
Dubnica
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
4/24/20212. liga2. liga · Round 26Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dubnica52%
×Draw24%
Partizán Bardejov24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubnica
1.67
Partizán Bardejov
1.04

Dubnica creates 61% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 38 away

creates per match

Dubnica
1.44
Partizán Bardejov
0.82

allows per match

Dubnica
1.27
Partizán Bardejov
1.89

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par
Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Partizán Bardejov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw
76%
Dubnica or Partizán Bardejov
76%
Draw or Partizán Bardejov
48%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+
28%
Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals
81%
Dubnica 2+ goals
50%
Dubnica 3+ goals
23%
Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
65%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
28%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)
69%
Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

Partizán Bardejov away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.44 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Partizán Bardejov attack 0.82 + Dubnica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dubnica scores more
52%
level
24%
Partizán Bardejov scores more
24%

Dubnica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dubnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Dubnica 2–2 Partizán Bardejov

Dubnica and Partizán Bardejov drew 2-2 in 2. liga on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.