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Partizán Bardejov vs Baník Kalinovo — 3. liga - East 2020

Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
FT
0 – 1
Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
3/23/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 19Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Partizán Bardejov55%
×Draw21%
Baník Kalinovo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizán Bardejov
2.04
Baník Kalinovo
1.29

Partizán Bardejov creates 58% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.61
Baník Kalinovo
1.07

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov
1.52
Baník Kalinovo
2.48

finishing

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par
Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov ↓

Baník Kalinovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov or draw
76%
Partizán Bardejov or Baník Kalinovo
79%
Draw or Baník Kalinovo
45%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
32%
Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
87%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
60%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
33%
Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
72%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
37%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
69%
Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Baník Kalinovo away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.48 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.61 + Baník Kalinovo defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.04

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.07 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Partizán Bardejov scores more
55%
level
21%
Baník Kalinovo scores more
24%

Partizán Bardejov at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Partizán Bardejov 0–1 Baník Kalinovo

Baník Kalinovo beat Partizán Bardejov 1-0 in 3. liga - East on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov in Bardejov.