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Baník Kalinovo vs Partizán Bardejov — 3. liga - East 2020

Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
8/25/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 4Štadión Kalinovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Baník Kalinovo56%
×Draw21%
Partizán Bardejov23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Kalinovo
2.10
Partizán Bardejov
1.27

Baník Kalinovo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.64
Partizán Bardejov
1.00

allows per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.55
Partizán Bardejov
2.57

finishing

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par
Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Kalinovo ↓

Partizán Bardejov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baník Kalinovo or draw
77%
Baník Kalinovo or Partizán Bardejov
79%
Draw or Partizán Bardejov
44%

Winning margin

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
34%
Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
88%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
62%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
35%
Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
72%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
36%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
71%
Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Kalinovo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Partizán Bardejov away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.64 + Partizán Bardejov defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.10

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.00 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baník Kalinovo scores more
56%
level
21%
Partizán Bardejov scores more
23%

Baník Kalinovo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Baník Kalinovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Kalinovo vs Partizán Bardejov

Baník Kalinovo beat Partizán Bardejov 5-1 in 3. liga - East on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Kalinovo in Kalinovo.