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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Padideh Khorasan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
7/17/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 25Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM42%
×Draw31%
Padideh Khorasan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12
Padideh Khorasan
0.84

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 58 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.10
Padideh Khorasan
0.72

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.97
Padideh Khorasan
1.14

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Padideh Khorasan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
73%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Padideh Khorasan
69%
Draw or Padideh Khorasan
58%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
17%
Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
67%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
10%
Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
57%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
21%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
61%
Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Padideh Khorasan away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.10 + Padideh Khorasan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.12

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.72 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
42%
level
31%
Padideh Khorasan scores more
27%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Pars Jonoubi JAM 2–1 Padideh Khorasan

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Padideh Khorasan 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on July 17, 2020.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.