Padideh Khorasan 1–0 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Padideh Khorasan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pars Jonoubi JAM

3/29/2019

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 23Imam Reza Stadium (Mashhad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Padideh Khorasan46%

×Draw33%

Pars Jonoubi JAM21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Padideh KhorasanExpected goals in this matchPars Jonoubi JAM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.61

Padideh Khorasan

1.06

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.61

Padideh Khorasan creates 74% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

0.73

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan

1.00

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.50

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan

0.73

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw

79%

Padideh Khorasan or Pars Jonoubi JAM

67%

Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM

54%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+

19%

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals

65%

Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals

29%

Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals

9%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

46%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

13%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)

69%

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.50 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more

46%

level

33%

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

21%

Padideh Khorasan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff