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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
9/23/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM46%
×Draw29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.25
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.85

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 47% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.94

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.21

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
75%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Naft Masjed Soleyman
71%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
54%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
21%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
71%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
36%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
13%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
57%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
21%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
64%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
46%
level
29%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
25%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Pars Jonoubi JAM 2–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 2-1 in Azadegan League on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.