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Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
2/6/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Behnam Mohammadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman46%
×Draw30%
Pars Jonoubi JAM24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.21
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.80

Naft Masjed Soleyman creates 51% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 100 away

creates per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.29
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.71
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Masjed Soleyman ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw
76%
Naft Masjed Soleyman or Pars Jonoubi JAM
70%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
54%

Winning margin

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
20%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
70%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
34%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
12%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
55%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
19%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
65%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Masjed Soleyman at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 1.29 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
46%
level
30%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
24%

Naft Masjed Soleyman at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Naft Masjed Soleyman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Pars Jonoubi JAM

Naft Masjed Soleyman and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on February 6, 2025.

The match was played at Behnam Mohammadi Stadium in Masjed Soleyman.