Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 16+ matches
Pars Jonoubi JAM44%
Naft Masjed Soleyman24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 50% more chances
Season form · 16 home / 61 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under73
- Over27
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No66
- Yes34
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓
Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches
Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.94 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08
Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.44 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.72
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Pars Jonoubi JAM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Pars Jonoubi JAM substitutes
Persepolis FC
Sepahan FC
Esteghlal FC
Padideh Khorasan
Tractor Sazi
ZOB Ahan
Saipa
Foolad FC
Sanat Naft
Nassaji Mazandaran
PaykanPars Jonoubi JAM
Machine Sazi FCNaft Masjed Soleyman
Sepidrood Rasht
Esteghlal KhuzestanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pars Jonoubi JAM host Naft Masjed Soleyman on Saturday, 14 December 2019 at 12:00. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Masjed Soleyman
Pars Jonoubi JAM and Naft Masjed Soleyman drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 14, 2019.
Goals: P. Aria Kia (5'), E. Mirjavan (90+3').
The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.