Pars Jonoubi JAM 0–2 Mes Shahr-e Babak

Pars Jonoubi JAM

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mes Shahr-e Babak

2/13/2025

Azadegan League · Round 21Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM40%

×Draw33%

Mes Shahr-e Babak27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pars Jonoubi JAMExpected goals in this matchMes Shahr-e Babak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.78

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.01

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.78

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 29% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 85 away

1.28

creates per match

0.79

0.77

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.28

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.79

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.77

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Mes Shahr-e Babak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw

73%

Pars Jonoubi JAM or Mes Shahr-e Babak

67%

Draw or Mes Shahr-e Babak

60%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

15%

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

64%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

27%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

8%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals

54%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals

18%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

59%

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.01

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 0.79 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

40%

level

33%

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more

27%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff