Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–0 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Mes Shahr-e Babak

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pars Jonoubi JAM

3/4/2024

Azadegan League · Round 22Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak45%

×Draw31%

Pars Jonoubi JAM23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes Shahr-e BabakExpected goals in this matchPars Jonoubi JAM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.72

Mes Shahr-e Babak

1.13

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.72

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 57% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 100 away

1.13

creates per match

0.89

0.55

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak

1.13

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.89

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.55

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw

77%

Mes Shahr-e Babak or Pars Jonoubi JAM

69%

Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM

55%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+

19%

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals

68%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals

31%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals

11%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

51%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

16%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)

66%

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more

45%

level

31%

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

23%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff