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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Machine Sazi FC — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
5/5/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 28Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM70%
×Draw19%
Machine Sazi FC11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
2.14
Machine Sazi FC
0.72

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 197% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 18 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Machine Sazi FC
0.67

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Machine Sazi FC
3.00

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
89%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Machine Sazi FC
81%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
30%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
45%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
88%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
63%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
36%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
51%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
16%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
86%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Machine Sazi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.14

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.67 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
70%
level
19%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
11%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Machine Sazi FC

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Machine Sazi FC 2-1 in Azadegan League on May 5, 2022.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.