Pars Jonoubi JAM 0–1 Machine Sazi FC

Pars Jonoubi JAM

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Machine Sazi FC

3/15/2019

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 22Takhti Stadium (Jam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM47%

×Draw29%

Machine Sazi FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pars Jonoubi JAMExpected goals in this matchMachine Sazi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.80

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.26

Machine Sazi FC

0.80

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

0.94

creates per match

0.61

1.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.94

Machine Sazi FC

0.61

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.00

Machine Sazi FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Machine Sazi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw

76%

Pars Jonoubi JAM or Machine Sazi FC

71%

Draw or Machine Sazi FC

53%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

22%

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

72%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

36%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

13%

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

55%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

19%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

67%

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.94 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.61 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

47%

level

29%

Machine Sazi FC scores more

24%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff