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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
3/5/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM48%
×Draw29%
Esteghlal Mollasani23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.29
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.79

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 63% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
77%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Esteghlal Mollasani
71%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
52%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
22%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
72%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
37%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
14%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
55%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
19%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
68%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
48%
level
29%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
23%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Esteghlal Mollasani

Pars Jonoubi JAM and Esteghlal Mollasani drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.