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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
11/12/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani40%
×Draw31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.08
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.86

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 26% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 100 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
71%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Pars Jonoubi JAM
69%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
60%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
16%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
66%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
29%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
10%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
58%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
21%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
58%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
40%
level
31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
29%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Mollasani 0–0 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Esteghlal Mollasani and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.