Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–2 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Pars Jonoubi JAM

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Chadormalu SC

H. Naderi 13'

M. Moslemi Javid 83'

A. Khodadadi 31'

3/27/2024

Azadegan League · Round 25Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM34%

×Draw32%

Chadormalu SC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pars Jonoubi JAMExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.96

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.95

Chadormalu SC

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 31 away

1.28

creates per match

1.16

0.77

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.28

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.77

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw

66%

Pars Jonoubi JAM or Chadormalu SC

68%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

66%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

12%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

61%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

25%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

7%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

62%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

25%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

50%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.95

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

34%

level

32%

Chadormalu SC scores more

34%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

H. Naderi

31'

A. Khodadadi

83'

M. Moslemi Javid

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff