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Chadormalu SC vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
FT
0 – 2
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
10/31/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC43%
×Draw29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.21
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.90

Chadormalu SC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 100 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.29
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.90
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
73%
Chadormalu SC or Pars Jonoubi JAM
71%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
57%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
19%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
70%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
34%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
12%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
59%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
23%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
61%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
43%
level
29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
27%

Chadormalu SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chadormalu SC 0–2 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Chadormalu SC 2-0 in Azadegan League on October 31, 2022.

The match was played at Nasiri Stadium in Yazd.