Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Be'sat Kermanshah

Pars Jonoubi JAM

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Be'sat Kermanshah

Abbas Bouazar 59'

12/27/2024

Azadegan League · Round 16Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM56%

×Draw44%

Be'sat Kermanshah0%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pars Jonoubi JAMExpected goals in this matchBe'sat Kermanshah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.00

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.83

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.17

creates per match

0.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

1.17

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.00

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM

0.00

Be'sat Kermanshah

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under95
Over5

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No100

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Be'sat Kermanshah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–044%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–036%

1–10%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–10%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (44%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

56%44%1.5

20%80%2.5

5%95%3.5

1%99%4.5

0%100%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw

100%

Pars Jonoubi JAM or Be'sat Kermanshah

56%

Draw or Be'sat Kermanshah

44%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+

20%

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals

56%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals

20%

Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals

5%

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals

0%

Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals

0%

Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)

100%

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)

0%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

0%

Both score & under 3

0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.00 · 6 matches

Be'sat Kermanshah away — creates 0.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.17 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.00 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more

56%

level

44%

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more

0%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Abbas Bouazar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff