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Be'sat Kermanshah vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2025

Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
FT
1 – 1
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
5/12/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Be'sat Kermanshah22%
×Draw34%
Pars Jonoubi JAM44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.61
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.99

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 62% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.60
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.38

allows per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.60
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.63

finishing

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be'sat Kermanshah ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–120%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Be'sat Kermanshah or draw
56%
Be'sat Kermanshah or Pars Jonoubi JAM
66%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
78%

Winning margin

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
6%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
46%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
13%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
2%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
63%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
26%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
34%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be'sat Kermanshah at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.60 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.61

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.38 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
22%
level
34%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
44%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Be'sat Kermanshah 1–1 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Be'sat Kermanshah and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on May 12, 2025.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Kermanshah.