Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
Pars Jonoubi JAM40%
Baderan Tehran30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 20% more chances
Season form · 102 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches
Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19
Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Pars Jonoubi JAM at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Gol Gohar
Shahin Bushehr
Oxin Alborz
Aluminium Arak
Mes Kerman
SorkhPooshan PakdashtBaderan Tehran
Qashqai Shiraz
Fajr Sepasi
Mes Rafsanjan
Malavan
Navad Urmia
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari MahshahrIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pars Jonoubi JAM host Baderan Tehran on Monday, 21 June 2021 at 16:05. The match is part of the Azadegan League 2018/2019 season.
Azadegan League: Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–2 Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran beat Pars Jonoubi JAM 2-1 in Azadegan League on June 21, 2021.
The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.