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Baderan Tehran vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
1 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
2/7/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baderan Tehran43%
×Draw30%
Pars Jonoubi JAM27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.20
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

Baderan Tehran creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 100 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
73%
Baderan Tehran or Pars Jonoubi JAM
70%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
57%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
19%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
70%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
34%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
12%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
59%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
22%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
61%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
43%
level
30%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
27%

Baderan Tehran at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baderan Tehran vs Pars Jonoubi JAM

Baderan Tehran beat Pars Jonoubi JAM 1-0 in Azadegan League on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr in Eslamshahr.