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Paro vs Namlha — Premier League 2023

Paro
Paro
FT
9 – 1
Namlha
Namlha
10/20/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Woochu Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Paro91%
×Draw6%
Namlha3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paro
4.91
Namlha
0.96

Paro creates 411% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

creates per match

Paro
4.71
Namlha
0.89

allows per match

Paro
1.03
Namlha
5.11

finishing

Paro+0.00on par
Namlha+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paro ↓

Namlha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Paro or draw
97%
Paro or Namlha
94%
Draw or Namlha
9%

Winning margin

Paro wins by 2+
81%
Namlha wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Paro 1+ goals
99%
Paro 2+ goals
94%
Paro 3+ goals
83%
Namlha 1+ goals
62%
Namlha 2+ goals
25%
Namlha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paro (draw refunded)
97%
Namlha (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paro at home — creates 4.71, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Namlha away — creates 0.89, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paro attack 4.71 + Namlha defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 4.91

Namlha attack 0.89 + Paro defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Paro scores more
91%
level
6%
Namlha scores more
3%

Paro at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paro 9 – 1 Namlha

Paro beat Namlha 9-1 in Premier League on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Woochu Sports Arena in Paro.