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Namlha vs Paro — Premier League 2023

Namlha
Namlha
FT
0 – 4
Paro
Paro
7/19/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Namlha4%
×Draw8%
Paro88%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namlha
0.77
Paro
3.83

Paro creates 397% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

Namlha
0.78
Paro
3.88

allows per match

Namlha
3.78
Paro
0.75

finishing

Namlha+0.00on par
Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namlha ↓

Paro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–310%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Namlha or draw
12%
Namlha or Paro
92%
Draw or Paro
96%

Winning margin

Namlha wins by 2+
1%
Paro wins by 2+
74%

Team goals

Namlha 1+ goals
54%
Namlha 2+ goals
18%
Namlha 3+ goals
4%
Paro 1+ goals
98%
Paro 2+ goals
88%
Paro 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Namlha (draw refunded)
4%
Paro (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namlha at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Paro away — creates 3.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namlha attack 0.78 + Paro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Paro attack 3.88 + Namlha defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Namlha scores more
4%
level
8%
Paro scores more
88%

Paro at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Namlha 0–4 Paro

Paro beat Namlha 4-0 in Premier League on July 19, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.