Pärnu 1–1 Läänemaa Haapsalu: Result & Stats

Pärnu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Läänemaa Haapsalu

9/22/2024

Esiliiga B · Round 29Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pärnu50%

×Draw19%

Läänemaa Haapsalu31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PärnuExpected goals in this matchLäänemaa Haapsalu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

2.08

Pärnu

2.66

Läänemaa Haapsalu

2.08

Pärnu creates 28% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

1.67

creates per match

1.27

2.89

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Pärnu

1.67

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.27

allows per match

Pärnu

2.89

Läänemaa Haapsalu

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw

69%

Pärnu or Läänemaa Haapsalu

81%

Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu

50%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+

32%

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals

93%

Pärnu 2+ goals

74%

Pärnu 3+ goals

49%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals

87%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals

61%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)

62%

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.89 · 18 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.67 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.66

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.27 + Pärnu defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pärnu scores more

50%

level

19%

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more

31%

Pärnu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pärnu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff