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Läänemaa Haapsalu vs Pärnu — Esiliiga B 2026

Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsalu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Pärnu
Pärnu
10/27/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 34Haapsalu Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu42%
×Draw22%
Pärnu36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.90
Pärnu
1.73

Läänemaa Haapsalu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.46
Pärnu
0.89

allows per match

Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.57
Pärnu
2.33

finishing

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Läänemaa Haapsalu ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Läänemaa Haapsalu or draw
64%
Läänemaa Haapsalu or Pärnu
78%
Draw or Pärnu
58%

Winning margin

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
23%
Pärnu wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
85%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
56%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
29%
Pärnu 1+ goals
82%
Pärnu 2+ goals
52%
Pärnu 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
54%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Läänemaa Haapsalu at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.57 · 37 matches

Pärnu away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 1.46 + Pärnu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

Pärnu attack 0.89 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
42%
level
22%
Pärnu scores more
36%

Läänemaa Haapsalu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Läänemaa Haapsalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Läänemaa Haapsalu 2–1 Pärnu

Läänemaa Haapsalu beat Pärnu 2-1 in Esiliiga B on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Haapsalu Staadion in Haapsalu.