Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pärnu vs Laagri — Esiliiga A 2026

Pärnu
Pärnu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Laagri
Laagri
8/22/2022Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 24Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Pärnu27%
×Draw20%
Laagri53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
1.56
Laagri
2.23

Laagri creates 43% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 36 away

creates per match

Pärnu
1.58
Laagri
2.72

allows per match

Pärnu
1.74
Laagri
1.53

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
Laagri+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Laagri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
47%
Pärnu or Laagri
80%
Draw or Laagri
73%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
12%
Laagri wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
79%
Pärnu 2+ goals
46%
Pärnu 3+ goals
21%
Laagri 1+ goals
89%
Laagri 2+ goals
65%
Laagri 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
34%
Laagri (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Laagri away — creates 2.72, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.58 + Laagri defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Laagri attack 2.72 + Pärnu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pärnu scores more
27%
level
20%
Laagri scores more
53%

Laagri at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Pärnu 1–2 Laagri

Laagri beat Pärnu 2-1 in Esiliiga A on August 22, 2022.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.