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Laagri vs Pärnu — Esiliiga A 2026

Laagri
Laagri
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pärnu
Pärnu
4/23/2022Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 9Laagri kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Laagri72%
×Draw16%
Pärnu12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laagri
2.70
Pärnu
1.02

Laagri creates 165% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 43 away

creates per match

Laagri
3.03
Pärnu
1.12

allows per match

Laagri
0.92
Pärnu
2.37

finishing

Laagri+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laagri ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Laagri or draw
88%
Laagri or Pärnu
84%
Draw or Pärnu
28%

Winning margin

Laagri wins by 2+
51%
Pärnu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Laagri 1+ goals
93%
Laagri 2+ goals
75%
Laagri 3+ goals
50%
Pärnu 1+ goals
64%
Pärnu 2+ goals
27%
Pärnu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Laagri (draw refunded)
86%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laagri at home — creates 3.03, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Pärnu away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laagri attack 3.03 + Pärnu defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.70

Pärnu attack 1.12 + Laagri defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Laagri scores more
72%
level
16%
Pärnu scores more
12%

Laagri at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Laagri 1–0 Pärnu

Laagri beat Pärnu 1-0 in Esiliiga A on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Laagri kunstmuru in Tallinn.