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Pärnu vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026

Pärnu
Pärnu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Elva
Elva
7/16/2022Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 20Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pärnu42%
×Draw23%
Elva35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
1.74
Elva
1.57

Pärnu creates 11% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 126 away

creates per match

Pärnu
1.58
Elva
1.40

allows per match

Pärnu
1.74
Elva
1.90

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
65%
Pärnu or Elva
77%
Draw or Elva
58%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
22%
Elva wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
82%
Pärnu 2+ goals
52%
Pärnu 3+ goals
25%
Elva 1+ goals
79%
Elva 2+ goals
46%
Elva 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
55%
Elva (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Elva away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.58 + Elva defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.74

Elva attack 1.40 + Pärnu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pärnu scores more
42%
level
23%
Elva scores more
35%

Pärnu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pärnu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Pärnu 0–1 Elva

Elva beat Pärnu 1-0 in Esiliiga A on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.