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Elva vs Pärnu — Esiliiga A 2026

Elva
Elva
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pärnu
Pärnu
10/17/2022Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 32Nike Arena Elva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Elva56%
×Draw21%
Pärnu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elva
2.17
Pärnu
1.33

Elva creates 63% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 43 away

creates per match

Elva
1.96
Pärnu
1.12

allows per match

Elva
1.53
Pärnu
2.37

finishing

Elva+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elva ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Elva or draw
77%
Elva or Pärnu
79%
Draw or Pärnu
44%

Winning margin

Elva wins by 2+
34%
Pärnu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Elva 1+ goals
89%
Elva 2+ goals
64%
Elva 3+ goals
36%
Pärnu 1+ goals
74%
Pärnu 2+ goals
38%
Pärnu 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Elva (draw refunded)
71%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elva at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.53 · 129 matches

Pärnu away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elva attack 1.96 + Pärnu defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.17

Pärnu attack 1.12 + Elva defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Elva scores more
56%
level
21%
Pärnu scores more
23%

Elva at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Elva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elva 3 – 2 Pärnu

Elva beat Pärnu 3-2 in Esiliiga A on October 17, 2022.

The match was played at Nike Arena Elva in Elva.