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Parma vs Atalanta — Serie A 2018

Parma
Parma
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Atalanta
Atalanta
5/9/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 35Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Parma29%
×Draw26%
Atalanta45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.10
Atalanta
1.46

Atalanta creates 33% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Parma
0.98
Atalanta
1.40

allows per match

Parma
1.52
Atalanta
1.22

finishing

Parma-0.02on par
Atalanta+0.04on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Parma or draw
55%
Parma or Atalanta
74%
Draw or Atalanta
71%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
11%
Atalanta wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
67%
Parma 2+ goals
30%
Parma 3+ goals
10%
Atalanta 1+ goals
77%
Atalanta 2+ goals
43%
Atalanta 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
39%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + Atalanta defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atalanta attack 1.40 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Parma scores more
29%
level
26%
Atalanta scores more
45%

Atalanta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parma vs Atalanta

Atalanta beat Parma 5-2 in Serie A on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.