Atalanta 3–0 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Parma

R. Gosens 61'

D. Zapata 49'

L. Muriel 15'

1/6/2021

Serie A · Round 16Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Atalanta60%

×Draw23%

Parma17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.81

Atalanta

1.76

Parma

0.81

Atalanta creates 117% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.92

creates per match

0.80

0.82

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Atalanta

1.92

Parma

0.80

allows per match

Atalanta

0.82

Parma

1.60

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Atalanta-0.19scores less

Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

83%

Atalanta or Parma

77%

Draw or Parma

40%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

34%

Parma wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

83%

Atalanta 2+ goals

52%

Atalanta 3+ goals

26%

Parma 1+ goals

56%

Parma 2+ goals

19%

Parma 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

78%

Parma (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 26 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.92 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.76

Parma attack 0.80 + Atalanta defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atalanta scores more

60%

level

23%

Parma scores more

17%

Atalanta at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Gosens

Atalanta · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

V. Mihăilă← Y. Karamoh

15'

L. Muriel↳ J. Iličić

33'

G. Pezzella← R. Gagliolo

39'

Wylan Cyprien

45'

Matteo Pessina

46'

D. Zapata← L. Muriel

46'

A. Cornelius← R. Inglese

49'

D. Zapata↳ R. Gosens

58'

R. Malinovskyi← J. Iličić

61'

R. Gosens

65'

J. Mæhle← R. Gosens

65'

A. Miranchuk← R. Freuler

81'

M. Caldara← H. Hateboer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaParma

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots2

12Corners3

10Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots2

6On Target0

9Off Target1

2Blocked1

12Inside Box0

5Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

531Total Passes517

463Accurate Passes446

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1